Ignite
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.00
8 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.20 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.10%
138 openings, odds method
Variance
24.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 138 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 138 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 200 | $500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN | 34.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $183 183 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $113 113 CSGOBIG_COIN | 15.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $59.00 59 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $18.00 18 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.2% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 90.0% | $0.77 0.77 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.6% | 126 | 124.2 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=60, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.00 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.5%restricted 0.5%covert 7.5%classified 1.5%mil spec 90.0%best hit $500 (62.50x)