Fearful
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.00
11 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $9.90 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
4.36%
19 openings, odds method
Variance
14.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 19 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $272 272 CSGOBIG_COIN | 27.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $168 168 CSGOBIG_COIN | 67.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 95.0% | $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.6% | 19 | 18.1 | 1.05× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=65, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeNecrz25$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$11.0011 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.00 | 89.96% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%restricted 4.0%Consumer Grade 95.0%best hit —