Squire
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.00
16 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.40 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
38.13%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 14.9% | $75.00 75 CSGOBIG_COIN | 77.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $6.10 6.1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $1.21 1.21 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=66, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.00 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.1%covert 14.9%restricted 25.0%milspec 25.0%mil spec 35.0%best hit —