Clarity
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.00
8 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.20 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.85%
37 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 37 openings and 14.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.7% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG_COIN | 50.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 60.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.3% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=67, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specReansaud$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN1.50x
MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specASSASInGHOST$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN3.75x
P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specASSASInGHOST$8.008 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN1.50x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.00 | 90.00% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 40.0%restricted 60.0%best hit —