Stoicism
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.00
19 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.10 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
148.20%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $480 480 CSGOBIG_COIN | 28.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $98.00 98 CSGOBIG_COIN | 22.9% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $32.00 32 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $25.40 25.4 CSGOBIG_COIN | 14.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.32 6.32 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 60.0% | $2.82 2.82 CSGOBIG_COIN | 9.9% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=68, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert$19.0019 CSGOBIG_COIN$32.0032 CSGOBIG_COIN1.68x
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryMyNameIsJeff$19.0019 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.822.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified$19.0019 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.326.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.00 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%restricted 10.0%classified 15.0%Legendary 60.0%best hit —