Tranquil
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.80
5.8 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5.22 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
49.89%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $104 104 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified | 19.0% | $11.50 11.5 CSGOBIG_COIN | 41.9% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet | 25.0% | $5.35 5.35 CSGOBIG_COIN | 25.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.07× |
| Sticker | Chi Bombsticker · #4b69ff | 55.0% | $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.1% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.21× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=69, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.80 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.0%violet 25.0%#4b69ff 55.0%best hit —