Bloodbath

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.00

10 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $9.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

109.63%

30 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

30 openings · below min

30 days

30 openings · below min

since tracking started

30 openings · below min

-0.5%110.3%221.0%

Small sample. 30 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	93.12%±127.2	—	odds
7d	30	109.63%±56.9	—	odds
30d	30	109.63%±56.9	—	odds
All	30	109.63%±56.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 125	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$85.00 85 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.9%	2	0.6	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$31.43 31.43 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.8%	1	2.0	0.49×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$22.09 22.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.5%	4	2.4	1.68×
USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 44	$9.91 9.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.7	—
Sticker \| Chaos Marine (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 18	$9.87 9.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$8.00 8 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10	$5.85 5.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	3	2.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$5.03 5.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 58	$3.64 3.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$3.11 3.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	2	1.4	1.47×
Sticker \| Team Spirit (Foil) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 25	$2.51 2.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	3	1.2	2.51×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 29	$2.32 2.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	1.0	0.00×
Negev \| Bratatat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 172	$0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 87	$0.72 0.72 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	0.3	—
M249 \| System Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 12	$0.34 0.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	2.6	0.39×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	6	2.7	2.20×
Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	0.9	—
Sticker \| Noble Steedsticker · #4B69FF	1 in 20	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	1.5	1.30×
Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	10.2%	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	3.1	0.98×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=7, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.113.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x13h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.0922.09 CSGOBIG_COIN2.21x13h

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.855.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.59x13h

Sticker | Team Spirit (Foil) | Stockholm 2021sticker · #D32CE6$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.512.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x18h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.0922.09 CSGOBIG_COIN2.21x18h

Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffWen1010$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x18h

StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$85.0085 CSGOBIG_COIN8.50x1d

Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$31.4331.43 CSGOBIG_COIN3.14x1d

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.855.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.59x1d

Sticker | Noble Steedsticker · #4B69FF$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 12.5%restricted 14.2%industrial 13.1%Legendary 5.7%pink 6.3%#8847FF 2.9%#4b69ff 13.6%#D32CE6 4.0%Mythical 3.4%mil spec 0.6%Mil Spec Grade 8.5%#4B69FF 5.1%consumer 10.2%best hit —