Ambition
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.00
10 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $9.00 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.44%
47 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 47 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $102 102 CSGOBIG_COIN | 28.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× |
| M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $51.70 51.7 CSGOBIG_COIN | 28.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $28.08 28.08 CSGOBIG_COIN | 23.4% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 82.5% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.1% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=71, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerkacper ronaldo SKINS$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.0010 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.5%covert 15.0%consumer 82.5%best hit —