Arctic Warfare
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.00
4 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.60 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
42.88%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=76, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9L3lit014_SKINS$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.760.76 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 90.00% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 20.4%#5E98D9 7.8%Industrial Grade 20.0%Restricted 6.5%#4B69FF 26.5%violet 7.8%#8847FF 7.1%#B0C3D9 3.9%best hit —