Kill Confirmed

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.00

12 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $10.80 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

232.48%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

30.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 38

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

-0.5%349.5%699.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	384.97%±313.8	—	odds
7d	20	232.48%±243.1	—	odds
30d	20	232.48%±243.1	—	odds
All	20	232.48%±243.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$805 805 CSGOBIG_COIN	44.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$180 180 CSGOBIG_COIN	33.3%	3	0.4	—
Sticker \| Outsiders (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 18	$9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
Sticker \| G2 Esports (Holo) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF	1 in 16	$7.30 7.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
Sticker \| refrezh (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 35	$3.58 3.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 11	$3.25 3.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	2	1.8	1.10×
Sticker \| chrisJ \| Cologne 2015sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 29	$3.04 3.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 10	$2.46 2.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
Sticker \| Copenhagen Flames (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic	1 in 15	$2.22 2.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	1	1.4	0.73×
Patch \| Entropiq \| Stockholm 2021patch · #4B69FF	1 in 14	$1.85 1.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	1	1.5	0.68×
Sticker \| FaZe Clan \| London 2018sticker · pink	1 in 12	$1.56 1.56 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	1	1.7	0.59×
Sticker \| Immortals \| Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF	10.2%	$1.28 1.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	1	2.0	0.49×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 166	$1.25 1.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 43	$1.16 1.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	2	1.0	1.95×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.54 0.54 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	2	0.3	—
Sealed Graffiti \| 8-Ball (Shark White)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 86	$0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 22	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	0.9	—
Sticker \| sinnopsyy \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 25	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.8	—
Sticker \| dav1d \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 13	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	1.6	1.89×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=8, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.540.54 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x3h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$180180 CSGOBIG_COIN15.00x3h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffFat Retard$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.051.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x3h

Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · exoticFat Retard$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.222.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.19x3h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$180180 CSGOBIG_COIN15.00x3h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Indigo (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.253.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x3h

Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Monster Purple)graffiti · #B0C3D9$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.040.04 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4h

Sticker | Immortals | Krakow 2017sticker · #4B69FF$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.281.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4h

Sticker | FaZe Clan | London 2018sticker · pink$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.561.56 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x8h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Indigo (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$12.0012 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.253.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$12.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.6%#EB4B4B 8.6%#8847FF 6.3%#B0C3D9 14.8%#4B69FF 33.0%Mythical 10.3%exotic 6.8%pink 8.5%#4b69ff 7.4%restricted 1.7%best hit —