Steampunk Revolution

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.00

5 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $4.50 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.76%

11 openings, odds method

Variance

24.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

10 openings · below min

30 days

11 openings · below min

since tracking started

11 openings · below min

-0.5%198.5%397.5%

Small sample. 11 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	10	91.26%±305.8	—	odds
30d	11	88.76%±291.6	—	odds
All	11	88.76%±291.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$770 770 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	12.3%	$14.94 14.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	41.0%	2	1.4	1.47×
Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 26	$11.45 11.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.7%	0	0.4	—
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 12	$3.35 3.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	1	0.9	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	13.3%	$3.19 3.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.4%	2	1.5	1.37×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 18	$1.85 1.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	3	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$1.78 1.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.7	—
Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	10.5%	$1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9	11.4%	$1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	2	1.3	1.59×
M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 11	$1.30 1.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.92 0.92 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	1	0.8	—
P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 21	$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir Nova \| Mandrel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 35	$0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Facility Draft (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 103	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir SG 553 \| Bleached (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 52	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=89, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.851.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x3d

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.920.92 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x3d

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.9414.94 CSGOBIG_COIN2.99x3d

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradelilBuGGy$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.353.35 CSGOBIG_COIN0.67x3d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.851.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x3d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.193.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.64x3d

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9Pearso$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.371.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x4d

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.371.37 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x4d

MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.851.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x4d

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$5.005 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.9414.94 CSGOBIG_COIN2.99x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$5.00	89.99%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%restricted 12.3%Uncommon 3.8%Industrial Grade 19.0%#8847FF 13.3%consumer 5.7%industrial 14.3%#5E98D9 11.4%#B0C3D9 14.3%Consumer Grade 5.7%best hit —