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CS:GO WEAPON

A case on CSGOCASES (CS2 cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOCASES's own item price.

Price
$4.59
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
72.20%
182 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
3 openings · below min
7 days
133 openings · below min
30 days
182 openings · below min
since tracking started
182 openings · below min
1.0%81.0%161.0%

Small sample. 182 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h325.93%±0.00—sample
7d13381.13%±79.4—sample
30d18272.20%±58.6—sample
All18272.20%±58.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOCASES publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSGOCASES's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedAlex$4.59$24352.94x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specClick$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specClick$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec✪ paSSion$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specmircio$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specmircio$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specmircio$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFallen Bem SKINS$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFallen Bem SKINS$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specFallen Bem SKINS$4.59$1.190.26x
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDxxx$4.59$1.190.26x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:38 UTC$4.59—0
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $243 (52.94x)