Sweet Dreams

A case on CSGOEmpire, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$307.05
500 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
78.99%
613 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
390 openings · below min
30 days
613 openings · below min
since tracking started
613 openings · below min
-0.5%46.5%93.5%

Small sample. 613 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h429.41%±57.6—sample
7d39069.14%±15.0—sample
30d61378.99%±14.1—sample
All61378.99%±14.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOEmpire publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Common$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified$307500 coins$361588 coins1.18x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · CommonaLy$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$307500 coins$467759 coins1.52x
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Common$307500 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $4,816 (15.68x)