Lightning

A case on CSGOEmpire, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.22

13.38 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

90.95%

20.2K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.79%±7.651,577 openings

7 days

89.94%±3.3315.3K openings

30 days

90.95%±3.1220.2K openings

since tracking started

90.95%±3.1220.2K openings

81.5%89.8%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,577	89.79%±7.65	—	sample
7d	15.3K	89.94%±3.33	—	sample
30d	20.2K	90.95%±3.12	—	sample
All	20.2K	90.95%±3.12	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOEmpire publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertObi Wan Can Blow Me$8.2213.38 coins$7421,208 coins90.32x3d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$8.2213.38 coins$7421,208 coins90.32x5d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$8.2213.38 coins$7421,208 coins90.32x7d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertelsösegéj csomag$8.2213.38 coins$7421,208 coins90.32x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Downtown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$8.2213.38 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x9m

Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$8.2213.38 coins$19.1131.11 coins2.33x9m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pinkSlanski$8.2213.38 coins$62.03101 coins7.55x9m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$8.2213.38 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x15m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSlanski$8.2213.38 coins$10.6917.41 coins1.30x15m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$8.2213.38 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x47m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$8.2213.38 coins$10.6917.41 coins1.30x47m

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified$8.2213.38 coins$16.7727.3 coins2.04x47m

Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMarteein$8.2213.38 coins$27.9145.44 coins3.40x47m

M249 | Downtown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetMobgoloiidd$8.2213.38 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x50m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $742 (90.32x)