Black Death
A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$409.11
666 coins
Advertised RTP
91.20%
EV $373.11 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
37.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 77
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Birdother | 1 in 12,500 | $94.1K 153,180 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo)sticker | 1 in 8,333 | $47K 76,590 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 2,000 | $36.8K 59,940 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo)sticker | 1 in 769 | $30.7K 49,951 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo)sticker | 1 in 500 | $24.5K 39,961 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $19.2K 31,303 coins | 15.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 167 | $10.6K 17,316 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 118 | $6,955 11,323 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 87 | $2,987 4,863 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 59 | $2,209 3,596 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Rising Skullsticker · High Grade | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $409 | 91.20% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.4%legendary 1.2%extraordinary 1.1%covert 2.3%High Grade 95.0%