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Fool's Gold

A case on CSGOEmpire, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.20
0.33 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
89.77%
159K openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.41%±12.9617.7K openings
7 days
92.86%±5.36117K openings
30 days
89.77%±4.53159K openings
since tracking started
89.77%±4.53159K openings
72.0%85.5%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h17.7K85.41%±13.0—sample
7d117K92.86%±5.36—sample
30d159K89.77%±4.53—sample
All159K89.77%±4.53—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOEmpire publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restrictedWAR$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMrBeaches$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restrictedTTHD$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.200.33 coins$45.2273.61 coins223.1x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x
Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Graffiti$0.200.33 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $45.22 (223.1x)