Howling Dawn

A case on CSGOEmpire, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$639.09

1,040 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

81.67%

232 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

168 openings · below min

30 days

232 openings · below min

since tracking started

232 openings · below min

-0.5%54.3%109.0%

Small sample. 232 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	28.87%±56.6	—	sample
7d	168	85.55%±22.6	—	sample
30d	232	81.67%±17.7	—	sample
All	232	81.67%±17.7	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGOEmpire publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo)sticker$6391,040 coins$6,76511,014 coins10.59x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$6391,040 coins$5,1058,310 coins7.99x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6391,040 coins$3,6906,007 coins5.77x2d

Sticker | Reason Gamingsticker$6391,040 coins$2,6454,305 coins4.14x1d

Sticker | Reason Gamingsticker$6391,040 coins$2,6454,305 coins4.14x2d

Sticker | Reason Gamingsticker$6391,040 coins$2,6454,305 coins4.14x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryfl4ck$6391,040 coins$2,1163,444 coins3.31x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$6391,040 coins$2,1163,444 coins3.31x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$6391,040 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6391,040 coins$7381,201 coins1.15x1h

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$6391,040 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialJulekage<3 PT I LIVGARDEN$6391,040 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$6391,040 coins$7381,201 coins1.15x1d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$6391,040 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$6391,040 coins$9231,502 coins1.44x1d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$6391,040 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifesmoi$6391,040 coins$1,5382,503 coins2.41x1d

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restrictedmoi$6391,040 coins$0.040.06 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $6,765 (10.59x)