Scamdom
A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.38
20.16 coins
Advertised RTP
91.19%
EV $11.29 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
29.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,616 12,398 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 4,000 | $2,415 3,931 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $805 1,310 coins | 28.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 75 | $149 242 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 57 | $80.50 131 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 45 | $48.29 78.62 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 32 | $26.01 42.34 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 24 | $22.91 37.3 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 14 | $17.89 29.13 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Blockedother | 80.0% | $0 0 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $12.38 | 91.19% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.2%extraordinary 0.4%classified 6.4%Classified 7.0%other 80.0%