10% Baller
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$282.99
404 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $257.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 345 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,115 1,593 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $999 1,427 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $931 1,330 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $398 569 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 90.0% | $181 258 coins | 63.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $283 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 96.7%classified 0.3%extraordinary 3.0%