10% Doppler

A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.09

72.98 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $46.44 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.98%

14.9K openings, odds method

Variance

15.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.16%±21.231,280 openings

7 days

92.35%±7.1011.5K openings

30 days

92.98%±6.2514.9K openings

since tracking started

92.98%±6.2514.9K openings

73.5%95.2%117.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,280	95.16%±21.2	+0.4σ	odds
7d	11.5K	92.35%±7.10	+0.4σ	odds
30d	14.9K	92.98%±6.25	+0.6σ	odds
All	14.9K	92.98%±6.25	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$1,639 2,341 coins	35.3%	157	148.9	1.05×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$824 1,177 coins	17.7%	142	148.9	0.95×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$562 803 coins	12.1%	172	148.9	1.16×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$442 631 coins	9.5%	164	148.9	1.10×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$291 416 coins	6.3%	136	148.9	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$274 392 coins	5.9%	141	148.9	0.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$228 326 coins	4.9%	137	148.9	0.92×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 100	$146 208 coins	3.1%	136	148.9	0.91×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$122 174 coins	2.6%	155	148.9	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$115 165 coins	2.5%	132	148.9	0.89×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	90.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	13,418	13401.0	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2shmig$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x2d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21200cToNothingIn1Hour$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x2d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2ShnoX$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Spreeko$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2User#507$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$51.6773.81 coins$1,6652,379 coins32.23x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$51.0972.98 coins$1,6392,341 coins32.08x7s

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.0972.98 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerFuldasgamer$51.0972.98 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.0972.98 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3m

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$51.0972.98 coins$228326 coins4.47x3m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerFuldasgamer$51.0972.98 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.0972.98 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$51.09	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.67	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,665 (32.23x)