10% Knife
A case on CSGORoll (10%, hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.76
9.66 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $6.15 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.97%
50.1K openings, odds method
Variance
18.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertits 12 meter kuk, bitches$6.769.66 coins$631902 coins93.37x
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertMr. Electricidad$6.769.66 coins$631902 coins93.37x
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBismillah Alrahim Alraham$6.769.66 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.76 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.90 | 90.87% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.93 | 90.86% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,083 (156.3x)