10% M4A1-S
A case on CSGORoll (10%, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.22
36.03 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $22.93 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.69%
9,541 openings, odds method
Variance
30.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 91
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,567 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified*,*BoBBasMaNn*XD$25.2236.03 coins$2,6153,735 coins103.7x
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedhrsnmisgesalle$25.8136.87 coins$2,5943,705 coins100.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialkattknullaren$25.2236.03 coins$0.100.15 coins0.00x
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialsi^b^rO$25.2236.03 coins$0.100.15 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $25.22 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $25.23 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.23 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.20 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.81 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.7%legendary 0.2%covert 4.0%restricted 48.4%epic 0.8%Mythical 15.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $2,615 (103.7x)