10% Mix up
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.79
8.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.87%
EV $5.26 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.40%
27.8K openings, odds method
Variance
12.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersi^b^rO$5.798.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Dual Berettas | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerEminescu$5.798.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Dual Berettas | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerThe other other guy$5.798.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.79 | 90.87% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.01 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.07 | 90.87% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%covert 9.8%consumer 90.0%best hit $408 (67.24x)