10% USP-S
A case on CSGORoll (10%, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.66
5.23 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $3.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.40%
131K openings, odds method
Variance
17.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $289 413 coins | 0.9% | 15 | 13.2 | 1.14× |
| USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $95.20 136 coins | 57.2% | 2,721 | 2634.8 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.8% | 131 | 131.7 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 204 | $78.40 112 coins | 11.6% | 621 | 645.5 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $27.65 39.5 coins | 8.3% | 1,353 | 1317.4 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 11.3% | 3,919 | 3952.3 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 29 | $6.26 8.95 coins | 6.4% | 4,470 | 4479.2 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 90.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 1.5% | 118,512 | 118567.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedVierQuantenPro$3.585.11 coins$296423 coins82.78x
USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedRa$van / csgoroll.com$3.585.11 coins$296423 coins82.78x
USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classifiedscottieh378$3.585.11 coins$296423 coins82.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialTheHolyDeagle$3.665.23 coins$0.060.08 coins0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.66 | 90.85% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.62 | 90.89% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.58 | 90.84% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 4.4%covert 2.1%restricted 0.5%mil spec 3.0%industrial 90.0%best hit $296 (82.78x)