1% D LORE
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.58
89.4 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $56.89 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.21%
3,298 openings, odds method
Variance
81.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,298 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 100.0% | 32 | 33.0 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 448 | 408.1 | 1.10× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 407 | 408.1 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 402 | 408.1 | 0.98× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 397 | 408.1 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 378 | 408.1 | 0.93× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 404 | 408.1 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 415 | 408.1 | 1.02× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 415 | 408.1 | 1.02× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerJhon csgoroll.com$62.5889.4 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $62.58 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%consumer 99.0%best hit $5,688 (90.88x)