1% FN D LORE
A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$116.51
166 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $105.93 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.09%
2,665 openings, odds method
Variance
81.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,665 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 100.0% | 19 | 26.7 | 0.71× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 312 | 329.8 | 0.95× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 312 | 329.8 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 324 | 329.8 | 0.98× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 338 | 329.8 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 302 | 329.8 | 0.92× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 344 | 329.8 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 353 | 329.8 | 1.07× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 12.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 361 | 329.8 | 1.09× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $117 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%consumer 99.0%best hit $10.8K (90.90x)