1% Lore

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.61

8.01 coins

Advertised RTP

90.88%

EV $5.10 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.95%

9,906 openings, odds method

Variance

38.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

104.60%±34.241,244 openings

7 days

93.14%±13.178,390 openings

30 days

91.95%±12.129,906 openings

since tracking started

91.95%±12.129,906 openings

69.5%104.5%139.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,244	104.60%±34.2	+0.8σ	odds
7d	8,390	93.14%±13.2	+0.3σ	odds
30d	9,906	91.95%±12.1	+0.2σ	odds
All	9,906	91.95%±12.1	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,906 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$5,688 8,125 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,288 1,840 coins	1.3%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$638 912 coins	1.0%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$598 854 coins	5.9%	5	5.0	1.01×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$434 620 coins	8.5%	15	9.9	1.51×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 298	$314 449 coins	20.7%	33	33.3	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$121 173 coins	11.9%	51	49.5	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$4.69 6.7 coins	10.1%	1,086	1089.7	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$4.26 6.09 coins	9.2%	1,071	1089.7	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$3.77 5.38 coins	8.1%	1,141	1089.7	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$3.38 4.83 coins	7.3%	1,057	1089.7	0.97×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$1.72 2.45 coins	3.7%	1,120	1089.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	11.0%	$1.72 2.45 coins	3.7%	1,040	1089.7	0.95×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$1.32 1.88 coins	2.8%	1,105	1089.7	1.01×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.0%	$1.15 1.65 coins	2.5%	1,109	1089.7	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.0%	$0.99 1.41 coins	2.1%	1,073	1089.7	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertShelp Jr.$5.618.01 coins$598854 coins106.6x17h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.618.01 coins$598854 coins106.6x18h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.638.04 coins$598854 coins106.2x2d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.618.02 coins$597853 coins106.4x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.648.05 coins$597853 coins106.0x8d

★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$5.618.01 coins$434620 coins77.40x57m

★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$5.618.01 coins$434620 coins77.40x18h

★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic$5.618.01 coins$434620 coins77.40x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$5.618.01 coins$4.696.7 coins0.84x4m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTunska$5.618.01 coins$4.696.7 coins0.84x4m

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$5.618.01 coins$0.991.41 coins0.18x4m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$5.618.01 coins$4.696.7 coins0.84x6m

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.618.01 coins$3.775.38 coins0.67x6m

USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.618.01 coins$1.321.88 coins0.23x6m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTunska$5.618.01 coins$4.696.7 coins0.84x6m

StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.618.01 coins$1.722.45 coins0.31x11m

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$5.618.01 coins$1.722.45 coins0.31x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$5.61	90.88%	16
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.61	90.95%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.62	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.61	90.89%	16
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$5.62	90.90%	16
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$5.62	90.89%	16
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$5.61	90.93%	16
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$5.60	90.91%	16
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.61	90.88%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.64	90.94%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%epic 0.1%restricted 66.0%mil spec 22.0%Rare 11.0%best hit $598 (106.6x)