5% Lore
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.87
14.1 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $8.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.04%
43.3K openings, odds method
Variance
51.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 6.3% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $738 1,054 coins | 4.1% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $414 591 coins | 9.2% | 72 | 86.7 | 0.83× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $390 557 coins | 8.7% | 92 | 86.7 | 1.06× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $207 295 coins | 11.5% | 224 | 216.7 | 1.03× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 54 | $148 211 coins | 30.4% | 809 | 801.8 | 1.01× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 46 | $121 173 coins | 29.5% | 947 | 949.2 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 41,172 | 41173.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.87 | 90.93% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.12 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%consumer 95.0%best hit $5,688 (561.9x)