70% Awp

A case on CSGORoll (awp, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$31.02

44.32 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $28.20 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.74%

1,192 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

30.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

88.73%±4.211,093 openings

30 days

88.74%±4.031,192 openings

since tracking started

88.74%±4.031,192 openings

84.0%105.3%126.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	107.86%±18.2	—	odds
7d	1,093	88.73%±4.21	−1.0σ	odds
30d	1,192	88.74%±4.03	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,192	88.74%±4.03	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,192 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$122 175 coins	3.0%	8	8.3	0.96×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$121 173 coins	2.1%	9	6.0	1.51×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$76.30 109 coins	8.7%	39	38.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$48.33 69.05 coins	13.7%	97	95.4	1.02×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$42.24 60.34 coins	7.2%	48	57.2	0.84×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$40.04 57.2 coins	17.0%	136	143.0	0.95×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	40.8%	$33.31 47.59 coins	48.2%	469	486.3	0.96×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	386	357.6	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$31.0244.32 coins$33.3147.59 coins1.07x15m

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$31.0244.32 coins$48.3369.05 coins1.56x15m

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$31.0244.32 coins$33.3147.59 coins1.07x15m

AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$31.0244.32 coins$40.0457.2 coins1.29x15m

AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertJompen♿$31.0244.32 coins$76.30109 coins2.46x15m

AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$31.0244.32 coins$40.0457.2 coins1.29x15m

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$31.0244.32 coins$48.3369.05 coins1.56x15m

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$31.0244.32 coins$42.2460.34 coins1.36x15m

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$31.0244.32 coins$33.3147.59 coins1.07x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$31.02	90.90%	8
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$31.02	90.92%	8
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$31.32	90.91%	8
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$31.25	90.90%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.2%classified 40.8%consumer 30.0%best hit —