70% Knife
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.54
80.77 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $51.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.97%
397 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
30.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 397 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $334 477 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $155 221 coins | 15.0% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.06× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $111 158 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 22.1% | 62 | 59.5 | 1.04× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $72.10 103 coins | 7.0% | 27 | 19.9 | 1.36× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.5% | $65.39 93.41 coins | 13.4% | 37 | 41.7 | 0.89× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 33.0% | $57.81 82.58 coins | 37.1% | 126 | 131.0 | 0.96× |
| SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 123 | 119.1 | 1.03× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert✪ Gytis ✪$56.5480.77 coins$57.8182.58 coins1.02x
SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBeastafiedBeast$56.5480.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $56.54 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.33 | 90.91% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.41 | 90.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 70.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —