Abstract
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.20
18.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $12.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.55%
2,457 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,457 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 62.4% | 242 | 245.7 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 333 | $72.80 104 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 143 | $42.20 60.28 coins | 2.5% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 50 | $22.79 32.56 coins | 3.8% | 58 | 49.1 | 1.18× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.66 15.23 coins | 8.9% | 234 | 245.7 | 0.95× |
| G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $10.35 14.78 coins | 4.3% | 120 | 122.9 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 12.0% | $5.52 7.89 coins | 5.5% | 302 | 294.8 | 1.02× |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $3.94 5.63 coins | 6.6% | 462 | 491.4 | 0.94× |
| Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.67 2.39 coins | 2.8% | 496 | 491.4 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.83 1.19 coins | 1.4% | 522 | 491.4 | 1.06× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$13.2018.85 coins$0.831.19 coins0.06x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$13.2018.85 coins$0.831.19 coins0.06x
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedTerroristi$13.2018.85 coins$3.945.63 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $13.20 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.18 | 90.93% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $13.17 | 90.89% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.17 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.15 | 90.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%industrial 1.0%violet 2.0%classified 35.0%mil spec 32.0%restricted 20.0%best hit —