Acid
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.28
11.83 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $7.53 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.66%
6,997 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,015 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $937 1,339 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $174 248 coins | 5.8% | 14 | 17.5 | 0.80× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $30.04 42.91 coins | 35.9% | 648 | 631.4 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 80 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 4.9% | 74 | 87.7 | 0.84× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $23.59 33.7 coins | 28.2% | 607 | 631.4 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.5% | $11.94 17.05 coins | 16.6% | 722 | 736.6 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 4.2% | 1,409 | 1402.3 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.04 1.48 coins | 2.8% | 1,343 | 1403.0 | 0.96× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.4% | 2,198 | 2104.5 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specUser#181$8.2811.83 coins$0.100.14 coins0.01x
MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerReettaonläski$8.2811.83 coins$1.582.26 coins0.19x
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specTerroristi$8.2811.83 coins$0.100.14 coins0.01x
MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerTerroristi$8.2811.83 coins$1.582.26 coins0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.28 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.51 | 90.88% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.52 | 90.90% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%mil spec 59.0%restricted 10.3%classified 10.5%consumer 20.0%best hit —