Addicted

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$145.26

208 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $132.06 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.28%

1,877 openings, odds method

Variance

99.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

186.53%±103.70357 openings

7 days

93.30%±47.621,678 openings

30 days

92.28%±44.981,877 openings

since tracking started

92.28%±44.981,877 openings

45.0%168.0%291.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	357	186.53%±103.7	+1.8σ	odds
7d	1,678	93.30%±47.6	+0.1σ	odds
30d	1,877	92.28%±45.0	+0.1σ	odds
All	1,877	92.28%±45.0	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,877 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 2,000	$63.7K 90,950 coins	24.1%	1	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$5,978 8,540 coins	6.8%	4	2.8	1.42×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 67	$957 1,367 coins	10.9%	33	28.2	1.17×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 54	$714 1,020 coins	10.0%	39	34.7	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$474 677 coins	16.7%	72	87.3	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$385 550 coins	9.6%	53	61.9	0.86×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$298 425 coins	8.0%	63	66.6	0.95×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$272 388 coins	5.8%	54	52.6	1.03×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 47	$264 377 coins	4.3%	35	40.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$162 232 coins	3.1%	33	46.9	0.70×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	77.5%	$1.36 1.94 coins	0.8%	1,490	1454.7	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$145208 coins$63.7K90,950 coins438.3x22h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$147211 coins$6,0628,660 coins41.12x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$147211 coins$6,0628,660 coins41.12x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$147211 coins$6,0628,660 coins41.12x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$145208 coins$5,9788,540 coins41.15x2d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$145208 coins$9571,367 coins6.59x17h

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$145208 coins$9571,367 coins6.59x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$145208 coins$1.361.94 coins0.01x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertJhon csgoroll.com$145208 coins$298425 coins2.05x1h

P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$145208 coins$1.361.94 coins0.01x3h

P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil specFalken$145208 coins$1.361.94 coins0.01x3h

P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$145208 coins$1.361.94 coins0.01x3h

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$145208 coins$264377 coins1.82x3h

P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$145208 coins$1.361.94 coins0.01x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$145	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$145	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$147	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 9.6%classified 4.7%restricted 6.1%extraordinary 2.1%mil spec 77.5%best hit $63.7K (438.3x)