Adrenaline

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.80

32.57 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $20.73 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.96%

949 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

88.64%±8.99863 openings

30 days

90.96%±8.57949 openings

since tracking started

90.96%±8.57949 openings

41.0%84.0%127.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	84.09%±42.3	—	odds
7d	863	88.64%±8.99	−0.5σ	odds
30d	949	90.96%±8.57	+0.0σ	odds
All	949	90.96%±8.57	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 953 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13,333	$563 804 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 13,333	$458 654 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 625	$225 322 coins	1.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| DreamHack 2014sticker · exotic	1 in 200	$200 285 coins	4.8%	5	4.8	1.05×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 1,111	$183 261 coins	0.8%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$118 169 coins	10.3%	23	17.2	1.34×
Sticker \| keshandr (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	1 in 40	$104 149 coins	12.6%	23	23.8	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$66.79 95.42 coins	16.1%	48	47.7	1.01×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$61.89 88.42 coins	2.5%	10	8.0	1.26×
Sticker \| Flash Gaming (Holo) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 15	$43.42 62.03 coins	13.6%	56	61.9	0.90×
Sticker \| Vega Squadron (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · exotic	1 in 14	$31.20 44.57 coins	10.4%	59	65.8	0.90×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$30.49 43.56 coins	4.3%	25	27.6	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$19.94 28.48 coins	6.4%	76	63.9	1.19×
Patch \| Meal Timepatch · remarkable	1 in 14	$13.05 18.64 coins	4.4%	62	66.7	0.93×
Sticker \| Miami Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 14	$8.58 12.26 coins	2.9%	78	66.7	1.17×
Sticker \| Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 14	$6.83 9.76 coins	2.4%	70	69.6	1.01×
Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 12	$4.45 6.36 coins	1.8%	72	79.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$4.44 6.35 coins	2.1%	98	95.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.5%	$3.24 4.63 coins	1.6%	100	100.1	1.00×
Sticker \| Great Wavesticker · high	16.0%	$1.08 1.54 coins	0.8%	147	152.5	0.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic$22.8032.57 coins$4.456.36 coins0.20x3h

Sticker | Vega Squadron (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · exoticVeckans$22.8032.57 coins$31.2044.57 coins1.37x3h

Sticker | Flash Gaming (Holo) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$22.8032.57 coins$43.4262.03 coins1.90x3h

Patch | Meal Timepatch · remarkableGigachad$22.8032.57 coins$13.0518.64 coins0.57x3h

Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exoticAxiomatic csgoroll.com$22.8032.57 coins$6.839.76 coins0.30x10h

Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$22.8032.57 coins$6.839.76 coins0.30x10h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$22.8032.57 coins$4.446.35 coins0.19x10h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$22.8032.57 coins$19.9428.48 coins0.87x10h

Sticker | Great Wavesticker · high$22.8032.57 coins$1.081.54 coins0.05x10h

Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil)sticker · exoticAxiomatic csgoroll.com$22.8032.57 coins$4.456.36 coins0.20x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$22.80	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$23.20	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$23.09	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 8.9%exotic 23.0%rare 0.1%restricted 12.3%remarkable 23.0%industrial 6.7%mil spec 10.0%high 16.0%best hit —