Aimless

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$90.98

130 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $82.71 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.10%

4,731 openings, odds method

Variance

9.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.22%±37.33255 openings

7 days

88.31%±9.064,336 openings

30 days

87.10%±8.674,731 openings

since tracking started

87.10%±8.674,731 openings

61.0%99.0%137.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	255	99.22%±37.3	+0.4σ	odds
7d	4,336	88.31%±9.06	−0.6σ	odds
30d	4,731	87.10%±8.67	−0.9σ	odds
All	4,731	87.10%±8.67	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,731 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$1,639 2,341 coins	19.8%	43	47.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,384 1,977 coins	16.7%	41	47.3	0.87×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$920 1,315 coins	11.1%	48	47.3	1.01×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$872 1,246 coins	10.5%	35	47.3	0.74×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$795 1,135 coins	9.6%	55	47.3	1.16×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$783 1,119 coins	9.5%	55	47.3	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$533 762 coins	6.4%	45	47.3	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$457 653 coins	5.5%	52	47.3	1.10×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$451 644 coins	5.5%	43	47.3	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$436 623 coins	5.3%	44	47.3	0.93×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,128	2129.0	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,142	2129.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$91.78131 coins$1,6652,379 coins18.14x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Der beste Uwe$91.78131 coins$1,6652,379 coins18.14x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$91.78131 coins$1,6652,379 coins18.14x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Der beste Uwe$91.78131 coins$1,6652,379 coins18.14x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$91.78131 coins$1,6652,379 coins18.14x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary$90.98130 coins$9201,315 coins10.12x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerFalken$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$90.98130 coins$7831,119 coins8.61x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$90.98130 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$90.98	90.91%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$91.78	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.0%legendary 1.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $1,665 (18.14x)