Alchemy

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$33.07

47.25 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $30.07 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.71%

1,910 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 27

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.87%±46.08140 openings

7 days

83.22%±13.311,712 openings

30 days

83.71%±12.611,910 openings

since tracking started

83.71%±12.611,910 openings

43.0%89.8%136.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	140	89.87%±46.1	−0.0σ	odds
7d	1,712	83.22%±13.3	−1.1σ	odds
30d	1,910	83.71%±12.6	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,910	83.71%±12.6	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,910 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,257 1,796 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,121 1,602 coins	7.5%	1	3.8	0.26×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$1,067 1,524 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$935 1,336 coins	1.6%	4	1.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$415 593 coins	27.6%	39	38.2	1.02×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$337 482 coins	11.2%	10	19.1	0.52×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$274 392 coins	4.6%	9	9.6	0.94×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$148 211 coins	9.8%	31	38.2	0.81×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 33	$106 152 coins	10.6%	65	57.3	1.13×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$86.80 124 coins	9.4%	59	62.0	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 13	$65.83 94.04 coins	17.5%	141	152.8	0.92×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	799	764.0	1.05×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	752	764.0	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covertpalt .hallcase.org$32.4546.35 coins$1,1211,602 coins34.56x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertzombieking388$33.0747.25 coins$9351,336 coins28.28x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$33.0747.25 coins$9351,336 coins28.28x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$33.0747.25 coins$9351,336 coins28.28x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$32.4546.35 coins$9351,336 coins28.82x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.0747.25 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$33.0747.25 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.0747.25 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert$33.0747.25 coins$337482 coins10.20x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$33.0747.25 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.0747.25 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.0747.25 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$33.0747.25 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$33.07	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$32.47	90.90%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$32.45	90.90%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.0%extraordinary 0.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $1,121 (34.56x)