Amethyst

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$42.59

60.84 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $38.72 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.49%

1,141 openings, odds method

Variance

8.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 34

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

92.20%±18.70979 openings

30 days

90.49%±17.321,141 openings

since tracking started

90.49%±17.321,141 openings

-0.5%89.8%180.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	86.81%±92.5	—	odds
7d	979	92.20%±18.7	+0.1σ	odds
30d	1,141	90.49%±17.3	−0.0σ	odds
All	1,141	90.49%±17.3	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,141 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$920 1,315 coins	11.9%	12	5.7	2.10×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 200	$911 1,302 coins	11.8%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$855 1,221 coins	11.0%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$570 814 coins	7.4%	5	5.7	0.88×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$445 636 coins	10.3%	7	10.3	0.68×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 125	$383 547 coins	7.9%	9	9.1	0.99×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 100	$183 261 coins	4.7%	10	11.4	0.88×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 200	$168 240 coins	2.2%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 87	$142 203 coins	4.2%	11	13.1	0.84×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$75.60 108 coins	2.5%	13	14.8	0.88×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$52.51 75.02 coins	3.4%	27	28.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$44.47 63.53 coins	3.4%	33	34.2	0.96×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 67	$42.11 60.15 coins	1.6%	32	17.1	1.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 56	$42.11 60.15 coins	2.0%	18	20.5	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$21.48 30.69 coins	2.2%	46	45.6	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$21.34 30.48 coins	1.1%	22	22.8	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$18.54 26.48 coins	3.1%	59	74.2	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$15.79 22.56 coins	2.0%	57	57.1	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$10.66 15.23 coins	1.7%	68	68.5	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$7.15 10.21 coins	3.3%	202	205.4	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$3.37 4.81 coins	0.7%	74	91.3	0.81×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.94 4.2 coins	1.1%	202	171.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	19.1%	$0.68 0.97 coins	0.3%	222	217.4	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary$42.6060.85 coins$9201,315 coins21.61x22h

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary$42.6060.85 coins$9201,315 coins21.61x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary$42.6060.85 coins$9201,315 coins21.61x2d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$42.6060.85 coins$9111,302 coins21.40x2d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$42.6460.92 coins$9111,302 coins21.37x2d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicNxxh$42.6460.91 coins$9111,302 coins21.38x4d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epicSammyB$42.6460.91 coins$9111,302 coins21.38x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$42.6060.85 coins$3.394.85 coins0.08x18h

★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$42.6060.85 coins$75.60108 coins1.77x18h

Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil specMASON92J$42.6060.85 coins$7.1510.21 coins0.17x18h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$42.6060.85 coins$2.944.2 coins0.07x22h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$42.6060.85 coins$0.680.97 coins0.02x22h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$42.6060.85 coins$2.944.2 coins0.07x22h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$42.6060.85 coins$0.680.97 coins0.02x22h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$42.6060.85 coins$2.944.2 coins0.07x22h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmiami$42.6060.85 coins$2.944.2 coins0.07x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$42.59	90.91%	23
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$42.60	90.90%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$42.60	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$42.42	90.91%	23
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$42.64	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$42.64	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.5%epic 0.5%covert 10.9%rare 1.5%classified 20.0%restricted 17.0%pink 6.5%mil spec 43.0%best hit $920 (21.61x)