Anchor

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.45

7.78 coins

Advertised RTP

90.96%

EV $4.95 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.19%

28.9K openings, odds method

Variance

9.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.05%±9.713,785 openings

7 days

90.97%±3.9223.7K openings

30 days

91.19%±3.5528.9K openings

since tracking started

91.19%±3.5528.9K openings

76.5%87.0%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,785	87.05%±9.71	−0.8σ	odds
7d	23.7K	90.97%±3.92	−0.0σ	odds
30d	28.9K	91.19%±3.55	+0.1σ	odds
All	28.9K	91.19%±3.55	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$172 246 coins	17.4%	152	144.7	1.05×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$160 228 coins	0.3%	5	2.9	1.73×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$121 173 coins	1.2%	10	14.5	0.69×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$95.20 136 coins	1.0%	15	14.5	1.04×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$52.26 74.66 coins	21.1%	566	578.6	0.98×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$51.72 73.88 coins	2.1%	50	57.9	0.86×
Operation Riptide Premium Passother · base	1 in 50	$44.00 62.86 coins	17.8%	563	578.6	0.97×
MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$28.55 40.78 coins	5.8%	305	289.3	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$27.05 38.65 coins	17.4%	947	922.9	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$12.75 18.22 coins	7.7%	861	868.0	0.99×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$5.04 7.2 coins	8.1%	2,322	2314.6	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	80.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	23,136	23145.6	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialBrumla$5.457.78 coins$12.7518.22 coins2.34x1m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.457.78 coins$52.2674.66 coins9.60x1m

MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.457.78 coins$28.5540.78 coins5.24x1m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.457.78 coins$52.2674.66 coins9.60x1m

MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.457.78 coins$28.5540.78 coins5.24x1m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertBrumla$5.457.78 coins$52.2674.66 coins9.60x1m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.457.78 coins$52.2674.66 coins9.60x1m

Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$5.457.78 coins$12.7518.22 coins2.34x1m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.457.78 coins$52.2674.66 coins9.60x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBrumla$5.457.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$5.45	90.96%	12
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.40	90.92%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.44	90.95%	12
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$5.44	90.96%	12
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$5.42	90.93%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.43	90.97%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.8%extraordinary 0.1%base 2.0%restricted 1.0%classified 3.2%industrial 3.0%mil spec 8.0%consumer 80.0%best hit —