Angler

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$90.57

129 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $82.34 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.98%

1,669 openings, odds method

Variance

8.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.04%±26.98422 openings

7 days

84.78%±14.781,401 openings

30 days

81.98%±13.531,669 openings

since tracking started

81.98%±13.531,669 openings

54.5%82.0%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	422	82.04%±27.0	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,401	84.78%±14.8	−0.8σ	odds
30d	1,669	81.98%±13.5	−1.3σ	odds
All	1,669	81.98%±13.5	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,669 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,521 10,745 coins	0.9%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,454 3,505 coins	1.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$1,514 2,163 coins	3.7%	4	3.3	1.20×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$1,467 2,096 coins	0.9%	1	0.8	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$1,397 1,996 coins	33.9%	23	33.4	0.69×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$536 766 coins	6.5%	10	16.7	0.60×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 50	$492 703 coins	12.0%	33	33.4	0.99×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$445 636 coins	16.2%	54	50.1	1.08×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 31	$360 514 coins	13.9%	53	53.2	1.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$356 508 coins	2.2%	13	8.3	1.56×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 13	$85.40 122 coins	8.3%	144	133.5	1.08×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	706	667.6	1.06×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	627	667.6	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert$91.01130 coins$2,4613,515 coins27.04x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$91.01130 coins$1,5562,223 coins17.10x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$91.01130 coins$1,5562,223 coins17.10x5d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyFalken$91.01130 coins$1,5562,223 coins17.10x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$90.57129 coins$1,4672,096 coins16.20x11h

Negev | Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$90.57129 coins$1,3971,996 coins15.43x3h

Negev | Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$90.57129 coins$1,3971,996 coins15.43x10h

Negev | Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$90.57129 coins$1,3971,996 coins15.43x11h

Negev | Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$90.57129 coins$1,3971,996 coins15.43x13h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$90.57129 coins$85.40122 coins0.94x3h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertFalken$90.57129 coins$445636 coins4.92x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$90.57129 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$90.57	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$91.01	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.0%classified 2.0%epic 2.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,461 (27.04x)