Anime

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$39.24

56.06 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $35.68 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.04%

402 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

37 openings · below min

7 days

92.44%±13.80346 openings

30 days

91.04%±12.81402 openings

since tracking started

91.04%±12.81402 openings

33.5%76.0%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	37	75.94%±42.0	—	odds
7d	346	92.44%±13.8	+0.2σ	odds
30d	402	91.04%±12.8	+0.0σ	odds
All	402	91.04%±12.8	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 402 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,047 1,495 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$844 1,205 coins	2.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$377 538 coins	1.1%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$336 480 coins	1.9%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$202 288 coins	2.8%	2	2.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$162 231 coins	4.5%	5	4.0	1.24×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · epic	1 in 333	$158 226 coins	1.3%	2	1.2	1.66×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$154 220 coins	3.5%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$152 217 coins	6.4%	6	6.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$97.30 139 coins	32.7%	43	48.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$94.50 135 coins	5.3%	9	8.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$65.56 93.66 coins	5.5%	17	12.1	1.41×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$59.44 84.91 coins	4.2%	16	10.1	1.59×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 25	$37.63 53.76 coins	4.2%	10	16.1	0.62×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 20	$17.19 24.55 coins	2.4%	21	20.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$15.67 22.39 coins	3.1%	25	28.1	0.89×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified	18.0%	$11.57 16.53 coins	5.8%	73	72.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	26.0%	$11.31 16.16 coins	8.2%	112	104.5	1.07×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New)weapon · classified	16.0%	$10.31 14.73 coins	4.6%	57	64.3	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$39.2456.06 coins$15.6722.39 coins0.40x10m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.2456.06 coins$11.5716.53 coins0.29x10m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$39.2456.06 coins$15.6722.39 coins0.40x10m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$39.2456.06 coins$11.3116.16 coins0.29x10m

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$39.2456.06 coins$97.30139 coins2.48x10m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted🔸Regular🔸$39.2456.06 coins$11.3116.16 coins0.29x10m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$39.2456.06 coins$11.3116.16 coins0.29x14m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare🔸Regular🔸$39.2456.06 coins$37.6353.76 coins0.96x14m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.2456.06 coins$11.5716.53 coins0.29x17m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$39.24	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$39.34	90.92%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.14	90.92%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.2%epic 0.3%classified 36.5%rare 9.0%restricted 33.0%best hit —