Apocalypse

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.49

6.41 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $4.08 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.08%

9,276 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.58%±13.381,068 openings

7 days

88.95%±4.947,937 openings

30 days

89.08%±4.579,276 openings

since tracking started

89.08%±4.579,276 openings

71.5%85.5%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,068	85.58%±13.4	−0.8σ	odds
7d	7,937	88.95%±4.94	−0.8σ	odds
30d	9,276	89.08%±4.57	−0.8σ	odds
All	9,276	89.08%±4.57	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,276 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$114 163 coins	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$113 161 coins	0.6%	1	1.9	0.54×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$94.50 135 coins	0.7%	1	2.8	0.36×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$81.20 116 coins	7.0%	34	32.5	1.05×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$68.77 98.25 coins	8.4%	44	46.4	0.95×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$64.79 92.56 coins	3.2%	19	18.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$50.64 72.34 coins	9.9%	73	74.2	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$39.73 56.76 coins	9.7%	84	92.8	0.91×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$21.01 30.01 coins	7.7%	127	139.1	0.91×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$12.27 17.53 coins	6.0%	188	185.5	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$11.32 16.17 coins	6.9%	247	231.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$9.30 13.29 coins	6.2%	267	250.5	1.07×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$5.99 8.55 coins	4.4%	276	278.3	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$5.01 7.15 coins	4.3%	300	324.7	0.92×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$3.37 4.81 coins	3.3%	393	371.0	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$2.16 3.09 coins	5.3%	930	927.6	1.00×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.10 3 coins	2.3%	410	417.4	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 20	$1.95 2.78 coins	2.4%	472	463.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	12.4%	$1.43 2.04 coins	4.3%	1,166	1149.3	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	14.0%	$0.87 1.24 coins	3.0%	1,298	1298.6	1.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.66 0.94 coins	2.4%	1,361	1391.4	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$0.41 0.58 coins	1.7%	1,585	1576.9	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$4.496.41 coins$2.163.09 coins0.48x5m

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specDab$4.496.41 coins$0.871.24 coins0.19x5m

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$4.496.41 coins$0.871.24 coins0.19x5m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.496.41 coins$0.410.58 coins0.09x5m

AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$4.496.41 coins$21.0130.01 coins4.68x5m

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.496.41 coins$11.3216.17 coins2.52x5m

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$4.496.41 coins$5.017.15 coins1.12x7m

USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$4.496.41 coins$0.660.94 coins0.15x7m

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$4.496.41 coins$2.163.09 coins0.48x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$4.49	90.95%	22
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.49	90.97%	22
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$4.49	90.87%	22
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$4.49	90.96%	22
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$4.49	90.89%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$4.45	90.86%	22
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.45	90.93%	22
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$4.45	90.86%	22
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$4.45	90.88%	22
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.44	90.97%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.46	90.86%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 5.0%classified 15.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 2.9%restricted 25.7%mil spec 51.4%best hit —