Armed
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.68
38.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $24.25 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.03%
563 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 563 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:18 UTC | $26.68 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.68 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $26.68 | 90.92% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.67 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.05 | 90.91% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $27.07 | 90.91% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $27.04 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.04 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.05 | 90.91% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.3%covert 9.7%restricted 6.6%mil spec 10.4%industrial 22.6%consumer 43.1%distinguished 2.7%exceptional 3.7%best hit —