Arms Race

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 25%, awp, rifles, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.64

5.2 coins

Advertised RTP

90.95%

EV $3.31 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.96%

39.1K openings, odds method

Variance

11.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.40%±9.115,264 openings

7 days

92.11%±3.7532.7K openings

30 days

91.96%±3.4439.1K openings

since tracking started

91.96%±3.4439.1K openings

77.5%87.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,264	87.40%±9.11	−0.8σ	odds
7d	32.7K	92.11%±3.75	+0.6σ	odds
30d	39.1K	91.96%±3.44	+0.6σ	odds
All	39.1K	91.96%±3.44	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$659 942 coins	2.0%	6	3.9	1.53×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$596 852 coins	1.8%	2	3.9	0.51×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$213 304 coins	6.4%	44	39.1	1.13×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$65.32 93.31 coins	3.9%	75	78.2	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 125	$25.12 35.88 coins	6.1%	340	312.8	1.09×
Negev \| CaliCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$16.06 22.94 coins	4.9%	446	391.0	1.14×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$16.00 22.86 coins	4.8%	416	391.0	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$15.46 22.08 coins	5.6%	392	469.2	0.84×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 67	$12.47 17.82 coins	5.7%	713	586.5	1.22×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$12.41 17.73 coins	7.5%	670	782.1	0.86×
M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 48	$11.82 16.88 coins	7.5%	787	821.2	0.96×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$10.01 14.3 coins	7.3%	914	938.5	0.97×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$5.94 8.48 coins	5.9%	1,274	1290.4	0.99×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 27	$5.68 8.12 coins	6.4%	1,449	1446.8	1.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$5.44 7.77 coins	6.6%	1,508	1564.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$4.02 5.74 coins	5.2%	1,748	1673.6	1.04×
FAMAS \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.79 3.99 coins	3.8%	1,780	1759.6	1.01×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$2.68 3.83 coins	4.0%	1,978	1955.1	1.01×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.84 1.2 coins	1.4%	2,124	2111.6	1.01×
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.64 0.92 coins	1.2%	2,363	2346.2	1.01×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.57 0.81 coins	1.0%	2,344	2385.3	0.98×
P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.21 0.3 coins	0.4%	2,517	2502.6	1.01×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$0.17 0.25 coins	0.3%	2,572	2580.8	1.00×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 14	$0.06 0.09 coins	0.1%	2,815	2737.2	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.05 0.07 coins	0.1%	2,955	2893.6	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 11	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.1%	3,419	3519.3	0.97×
MP9 \| Pine (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 11	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.1%	3,452	3519.3	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$3.715.3 coins$666951 coins179.4x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$3.715.3 coins$666951 coins179.4x5d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$3.715.3 coins$666951 coins179.4x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2J.E.J$3.715.3 coins$666951 coins179.4x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$3.645.2 coins$659942 coins181.2x14h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$3.645.2 coins$659942 coins181.2x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4achilles$3.715.3 coins$599855 coins161.3x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · legendary · Phase 4$3.715.3 coins$599855 coins161.3x4d

Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$3.715.3 coins$254363 coins68.49x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$3.645.2 coins$0.020.03 coins0.01x41s

AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$3.645.2 coins$4.025.74 coins1.10x41s

MP9 | Pine (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$3.645.2 coins$0.020.03 coins0.01x41s

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$3.645.2 coins$0.170.25 coins0.05x41s

P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffMax1m$3.645.2 coins$0.210.3 coins0.06x41s

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.645.2 coins$0.841.2 coins0.23x41s

PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$3.645.2 coins$0.050.07 coins0.01x2m

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · Rare$3.645.2 coins$0.640.92 coins0.18x2m

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommonSolatyre$3.645.2 coins$5.688.12 coins1.56x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$3.64	90.95%	27
9 Nov, 14:08 UTC	$3.64	90.94%	27
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$3.64	90.96%	27
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$3.64	90.94%	27
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.64	90.92%	27
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.66	90.96%	27
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$3.71	90.90%	27
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$3.71	90.89%	27
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.71	90.92%	27
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.71	90.93%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%restricted 14.0%covert 0.2%Classified 0.8%industrial 17.1%classified 7.9%uncommon 7.2%Mythical 4.3%mil spec 11.1%Rare 6.0%#4b69ff 6.4%#87c7ff 7.0%common 18.0%best hit $666 (179.4x)