Artefact
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$77.66
111 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $70.60 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.80%
278 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 10,000 | $1,583 2,262 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $603 861 coins | 10.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $582 832 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 11 | $335 479 coins | 42.7% | 34 | 25.0 | 1.36× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $218 311 coins | 27.8% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 10.5% | $111 159 coins | 16.5% | 26 | 29.2 | 0.89× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 79 | 83.4 | 0.95× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 51 | 55.6 | 0.92× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 58 | 55.6 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$77.66111 coins$603861 coins7.76x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertMivjoh$77.66111 coins$603861 coins7.76x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertmickarmement100k$78.71112 coins$603861 coins7.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$77.66111 coins$335479 coins4.32x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$77.66111 coins$335479 coins4.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $77.66 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $77.66 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.71 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%consumer 70.0%best hit $603 (7.76x)