Artwork
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.92
4.17 coins
Advertised RTP
90.98%
EV $2.66 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.77%
16.4K openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $2.92 | 90.98% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $2.92 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.93 | 90.81% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.93 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.93 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.88 | 90.81% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.88 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $2.88 | 90.83% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.88 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $2.87 | 91.02% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.88 | 90.84% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 21.1%covert 0.4%restricted 30.0%mil spec 13.0%superior 2.0%high 20.5%Rare 7.0%industrial 6.0%best hit —