Aura
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.88
21.26 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $13.53 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.30%
6,854 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,868 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Winstrike Team (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · exotic$14.8821.26 coins$6.549.34 coins0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $14.88 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.89 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.05 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.08 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.5%rare 0.5%exotic 13.0%remarkable 21.0%restricted 15.0%classified 18.0%high 25.0%best hit —