Aurora
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.16
40.23 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $25.60 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.80%
2,809 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,815 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl$28.1640.23 coins$2,2963,280 coins81.53x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.1640.23 coins$64.8392.61 coins2.30x
Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerLike Scoob, I'm Buff$28.1640.23 coins$1.391.99 coins0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $28.16 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $28.17 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.17 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.46 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $28.52 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $28.52 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.51 | 90.90% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 12.3%classified 0.6%restricted 25.0%distinguished 5.0%pink 17.0%consumer 20.0%industrial 20.0%best hit $2,296 (81.53x)