Autumn Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.47
2.1 coins
Advertised RTP
91.10%
EV $1.34 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.54%
25K openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,000,000 | $273 390 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Grassland (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 11 | $8.54 12.2 coins | 60.6% | 2,402 | 2376.2 | 1.01× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 200 | $6.31 9.01 coins | 2.4% | 120 | 125.1 | 0.96× |
| MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $1.16 1.66 coins | 34.7% | 10,065 | 10010.4 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 50.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 2.1% | 12,439 | 12513.0 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.47 | 91.10% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.49 | 91.10% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.48 | 90.96% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 40.0%covert 0.0%industrial 60.0%best hit —