Avalanche

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$353.00

504 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $320.90 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.30%

242 openings, odds method

Variance

7.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

46 openings · below min

7 days

85.71%±37.70191 openings

30 days

96.30%±33.45242 openings

since tracking started

96.30%±33.45242 openings

-0.5%70.8%142.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	46	63.71%±77.5	—	odds
7d	191	85.71%±37.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	242	96.30%±33.5	+0.3σ	odds
All	242	96.30%±33.5	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 242 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$63.7K 90,950 coins	2.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 3,333	$9,240 13,200 coins	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$8,869 12,670 coins	13.8%	2	1.2	1.65×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$2,244 3,205 coins	1.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$2,037 2,910 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 125	$1,567 2,239 coins	3.9%	5	1.9	2.58×
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 333	$1,528 2,183 coins	1.4%	1	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 2,500	$1,474 2,105 coins	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20	$1,086 1,552 coins	16.9%	10	12.1	0.83×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,250	$1,067 1,524 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 71	$788 1,125 coins	3.4%	3	3.4	0.89×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 77	$783 1,119 coins	3.2%	2	3.1	0.64×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 250	$767 1,095 coins	1.0%	1	1.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 83	$760 1,086 coins	2.8%	2	2.9	0.69×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$567 810 coins	5.3%	7	7.3	0.96×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 167	$566 808 coins	1.1%	1	1.5	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$563 804 coins	10.5%	13	14.5	0.90×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$502 717 coins	1.6%	2	2.4	0.83×
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$342 488 coins	8.5%	20	19.4	1.03×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$210 300 coins	5.9%	28	21.8	1.29×
G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$135 193 coins	6.3%	26	36.3	0.72×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$133 190 coins	0.6%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 11	$123 176 coins	3.5%	21	21.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.6%	$50.96 72.8 coins	3.3%	55	49.9	1.10×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	15.0%	$46.47 66.38 coins	2.2%	39	36.3	1.07×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$359512 coins$8,86912,670 coins24.73x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$359512 coins$8,86912,670 coins24.73x7d

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$353504 coins$1,5672,239 coins4.44x10h

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic🟢Kick: JULSY$359512 coins$1,5572,224 coins4.34x5d

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$359512 coins$1,5572,224 coins4.34x5d

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$359512 coins$1,5572,224 coins4.34x7d

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$359512 coins$1,5572,224 coins4.34x8d

AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary$359512 coins$1,4772,110 coins4.12x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryWielando$353504 coins$1,4742,105 coins4.17x20h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2lielfarag70$359512 coins$1,1201,600 coins3.12x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$353504 coins$50.9672.8 coins0.14x4h

USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$353504 coins$210300 coins0.59x10h

CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted$353504 coins$342488 coins0.97x10h

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$353504 coins$133190 coins0.38x10h

G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial560 HP$353504 coins$135193 coins0.38x10h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$353504 coins$50.9672.8 coins0.14x10h

★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$353504 coins$1,5672,239 coins4.44x10h

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$353504 coins$123176 coins0.35x10h

CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted560 HP$353504 coins$342488 coins0.97x10h

G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial$353504 coins$135193 coins0.38x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$353	90.91%	25
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$354	90.91%	25
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$359	90.91%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.8%contraband 0.0%covert 33.4%extraordinary 2.4%epic 0.8%classified 32.6%rare 6.0%restricted 8.0%industrial 15.0%best hit $8,869 (24.73x)