AWP OF THRONES
A case on CSGORoll (awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$68.81
98.3 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $62.56 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.83%
4,485 openings, odds method
Variance
27.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,485 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 11.1% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 15.7% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.74× |
| AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary | 1 in 250 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 9.8% | 18 | 17.9 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $878 1,254 coins | 7.0% | 24 | 22.4 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $445 636 coins | 17.8% | 97 | 112.1 | 0.87× |
| AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 18 | $158 225 coins | 13.8% | 258 | 246.7 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $116 166 coins | 9.3% | 256 | 224.3 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 6.6% | 369 | 358.8 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 13.0% | $27.10 38.71 coins | 5.6% | 595 | 583.1 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 15.0% | $6.17 8.82 coins | 1.5% | 643 | 672.8 | 0.96× |
| Patch | Dragonpatch · exotic | 24.0% | $2.74 3.92 coins | 1.1% | 1,076 | 1076.4 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Dragon (Foil)sticker · exotic | 25.9% | $1.82 2.6 coins | 0.8% | 1,138 | 1159.4 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $68.81 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $68.77 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $68.91 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.3%legendary 0.4%classified 18.5%restricted 13.0%exotic 64.9%best hit $6,941 (100.9x)